Retrofit gap threatens IMO’s net-zero ambitions - Everllence
Around 50 GW of existing two-stroke engine capacity will require retrofitting by 2050, exposing a growing gap between the IMO's net-zero ambition and near-term action, engine maker Everllence argues.
IMAGE: Construction of a ship in a shipyard. Getty Images
Even if all new vessels are able to run on zero or near-zero (ZNZ) emission fuels by 2030, around 50 gigawatts (GW) of existing two-stroke engine capacity will still need to be converted over the next 20 years. This is equivalent to roughly 2,000 large vessels, Everllence estimates.
Across the globe, around 30,000 vessels above 5,000 gross tonnage — including containerships, bulk carriers and tankers — are equipped with two-stroke engines. Of these, around 5,300 ships are technically suitable for conversion.
On paper, the 50 GW requirement is technically achievable if all 2,000 suitable vessels are retrofitted for ZNZ propulsion.
But in reality, activity in the retrofit market remains subdued.
"The retrofit market is currently in the doldrums with shipowners backing off investment until clarity arrives regarding IMO rules," said Klaus Rasmussen, project sales director at Everllence.
He added that many shipowners are opting for energy efficiency upgrades instead of investing in alternative fuel retrofits because of global regulatory uncertainty. This wait-and-see approach "risks creating costly capacity bottlenecks once NZF [Net-Zero Framework] regulation finally kicks in."
For instance, if the net-zero framework is adopted as approved in April 2025, shipowners that have already committed to newbuilds may face simultaneous pressure to retrofit existing vessels to meet tightening GHG intensity targets. This could strain shipyard availability and engineering resources, potentially tightening the retrofit market to the point where delays become unavoidable.
"We urgently need action on retrofits," Rasmussen said.
By Konica Bhatt
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