OPEC cuts oil demand growth forecast again

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its global oil demand growth projection for 2026 to about 400,000 b/d, around 200,000 b/d lower than its previous estimate.

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OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast, marking a fifth consecutive downward revision, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to reshape energy consumption patterns.

OPEC sees global oil demand to reach about 105.84 million b/d in 2026, including about 46.14 million b/d from OECD economies.

OPEC has forecast oil demand from non-OECD countries to average around 59.70 million b/d this year – about 120,000 b/d lower than its previous projection. 

“Overall, oil demand in the OECD is forecast to ease by about 0.1 tb/d [10,000 b/d] in 2026, while non-OECD oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.5 mb/d, y-o-y [500,000 b/d year-on-year],” OPEC said.

Global oil consumption in 2027 is expected to grow by 2.4 million b/d, to average 108.19 million b/d – slightly higher than OPEC’s August projection.

OPEC sees demand for its crude to average 42.2 million b/d this year – about 100,000 b/d higher than last month’s projection. The Saudi Arabia-led coalition expects demand for its crude to reach 43.9 million b/d next year.

Supply estimates

Total crude oil production by OPEC+ members averaged 38.05 million b/d last month, about 300,000 b/d higher than in July, OPEC said.

Iraq and Kuwait ramped up oil production by 664,000 b/d and 49,000 b/d last month, to about 3.4 million b/d and 1.9 million b/d, respectively.

OPEC+ member Kazakhstan hiked production by 159,000 b/d last month, to about 1.8 million b/d.

Meanwhile, OPEC’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia slashed production by 75,000 b/d last month, to about 7.3 million b/d.

Iran cut production by 399,000 b/d amid the ongoing war with the US, to about 2.1 million b/d.

OPEC+ leading producer Russia also reduced oil output by 160,000 b/d to about 8.7 million b/d, as the country’s energy production and refining facilities continued to come under Ukrainian drone strikes.

The Vienna-headquartered coalition sees non-OPEC production to grow by 600,000 b/d, with output expected to average around 54.8 million b/d this year – matching its previous estimate.

“The main liquids production growth drivers are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina,” it said.

The OPEC+ coalition comprise of the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia and Sudan.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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